A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
